Win Ranking Methodology

Ranking Methodology

This ranking system is different from most other ranking systems. Most try to rank which teams would be more likely to beat another team the next weekend on a neutral field. I have been doing that type of ranking for most of the last forty years. But there are dozens of those types of systems. This one is designed to determine which teams have the better resume when it comes down to being on the bubble to make the playoffs—or just for the fun of it.

The methodology is pretty simple. Everything is based on wins and who you beat. It makes no difference if you won by 7 or 47. After all, a win is a win (just like in typical conference standings). You do not get negative points for a loss, but you do lose out on the points you would have earned for a win, which can be substantial as the season progresses.

Of course, a win against a Power Four team is more valuable than a win against a Group of Five team. So Group of Five wins are set at 70% of Power Four (plus Notre Dame) wins. This means a win over a 9-win Group of Five team will be worth approximately what a win over a 6-win team from a Power Four conference would be worth. Of course, there is no such distinction in the NFL. For college games, the opponent must be an FBS opponent. There are no points awarded for a win against a non-FBS team. (I will add that while arguably the SEC and Big Ten are tougher leagues than the ACC and Big 12, for purposes of this ranking, we will keep all things equal among the Power Four conferences. And all Group of Five teams are valued at 70%.)

When Team A beats Team B, Team A earns 1 point (0.7 points for a Group of Five win) plus Team B’s Win Value (WV), or, in the case of a Group of Five win, 70% of Team B’s WV. But that is not all. If the game was played on a neutral field, the total is increased by 5%. If Team A was the away team, the total is increased by 10%.

What is an opponent’s Win Value (WV)? It is the team’s number of home wins, plus its number of neutral-field wins multiplied by 1.05, plus its number of away wins multiplied by 1.1. So if a team has 3 wins, all at home, its WV would be 3. If they were all away games, its WV would be 3.3.

So each week, a team’s total points can increase with a win by acquiring its opponent’s WV plus a point (adjusted to 70% in the case of Group of Five opponents). But a team’s points can also increase as its prior opponents increase their WV by gaining more wins as the season progresses.